Happy to share that we finally have PFF quarterback matchups in the FanDuel app—something that’s been in the works for a while.
KC +4 @ BAL
There’s no better reason to take the four points than just saying the name, Patrick Mahomes. The guy hasn’t missed a Conference Championship in his career as a starter.
As for how this game will play out, regardless of KC finding a way to win, it could be a defensive battle between Spags and Macdonald.
Ben Solak wrote a piece on these two DCs taking advantage of offenses using pre-snap motions by anticipating the snap of the ball, moving coverages pre-snap, and blitzing safeties and linebackers. The Ravens defense is first in EPA per play when facing pre-snap motion, per Next Gen Stats. KC ranks 6th.
KC blitzes 29% of dropbacks, which is above average. We could see Lamar find success on the ground using his legs. He leads quarterbacks in the league in rushing yards before contact, when blitzed, and has recorded 10 first downs.
Zay Flowers could also find success on quick throws. Flowers runs screen routes on almost 25% of his routes run, and has the most receptions on screens.
He has the 3rd-most first downs on these quick routes, and KC has allowed the most first downs to WR screens in the league, ranking 23rd in success rate, at 40%.
DET @ SF -7
As much as I’d love to see DET in the Super Bowl, I don’t see how DET’s defense stops SF’s offense.
DET has the worst explosive pass rate defense in league. SF has the best explosive pass rate offense. In the past five games, DET has also given up 300+ yards passing.
Brandon Aiyuk and Brock Purdy overs are going to be the foundation of my same-game parlays in this one. SF also has the best defense in the league defending middle of field, and they rank 3rd-best against TEs, as seen in Jared Goff’s PFF matchup in the FanDuel app. Sam Laporta could struggle to see targets.
If DET sees any success on offense, it’s on the ground. The Niners rank 25th in EPA-per-play allowed on run plays, and they rank last in success rate allowed on the ground. Gibbs could break out for a couple big runs and David Montgomery could chip away at this SF defense, as well.