It’s been a minute, but I wanted to give some of my thoughts on this weekend, because it is the best weekend of the year.
Before I get into my analysis, I want to plug some more work I’ve been actively a part of, surfacing more PFF analysis in Fan Duel and Fanatics sportsbooks.
Running back receiving and rushing matchups are available in Fan Duel, and look out for live* PFF analysis in Fanatics’ sportsbook app during the games tomorrow.
Also, in the UFC world, I think Dricus Du Plessis beating Strickland at almost even odds is a good bet. Maybe we’ll make money on NFL today to get involved.
HOU @ BAL -9.5
Last weekend was fun. We saw two young quarterbacks sling the ball and have great success. Now, we all want to hammer CJ Stroud and Jordan Love overs. I’d love to, and probably will in some high-value parlays, but I’m going to try to keep myself grounded and remember the Ravens and Niners had a Bye Week, but they’re still very good.
Lamar Jackson is going to have a great game passing against HOU. The argument against it is that HOU will supply pressure and rotate their safeties post-snap, much like they did against Joe Flacco that forced a couple pick-sixes. But, Lamar has the highest pass grade under pressure and the highest big-time-throw percentage under pressure. He can handle it.
HOU also ranks 30th in success rate against play-action passes. Lamar ranks 7th in most play action drop backs and 2nd highest in completion percentage in play action.
On the other side of the ball, CJ Stroud may find Nico Collins for a deep ball and a touchdown. Book it. But, I want it known, HOU has the 7th highest 3rd and long rate. BAL leads the league in late downs forced, and they rank 3rd-best in EPA allowed, at -0.276 on late downs.
GB @ SF -9.5
A tale as old as time. GB was 0-4 postseason against San Francisco with Rodgers behind center. Will Love prove history wrong? He may have a good game (actually, Aaron Jones more likely will), but George Kittle will break their defense in half. I’ll try to convince you, but if you look at Fan Duel’s app, you can read the data yourself.
Kittle leads tight ends in PFF receiving grade, this season. He has over 1,000 receiving yards, ranking 2nd to Kelce, who has 35 more yards. But, Kelce also has 35 more receptions. If we look closer, Kittle leads the league in yards per route run, with 460 routes, making his time on the field the most efficient amongst tight ends.
GB ranks 4th-worst in completion percentage allowed to tight ends. They also rank 6th-worst in first downs allowed to tight end receptions. Because GB struggles to defend the run, ranking 26th in run DVOA, I expect Christian McCaffrey to have success on early downs and George Kittle to clean up on late downs play action.
TB @ DET -6.5
I’ve had a terrible year betting against Baker Mayfield. He’s embarrassed me entirely. So, instead of just attacking Baker, I’m going to bet against him and Mike Evans. This is probably ill advised, because it’s not hard to catch the ball, and he’s Baker’s favorite target, but I am not a financial advisor. I am going to short the shit out of Mike Evans stock, because I’m emotionally connected to hating his guts when he drops a perfectly thrown ball.
Baker ranks 4th in perfectly thrown balls this season (accurate, in frame, and away from coverage). Mike Evans has 6 drops on perfectly thrown balls, ranking 3rd-worst, amongst wide receivers. All of which are when the score differential is within one score. Yes, he has a ton of yards, but that’s really because his targeted depth is insane, recording an ADOT this season of 15.2. If we look at his total targets, he ranks 15th-most, but he ranks 19th in total receptions, giving him 61.2% reception percentage. He gets volume, which give him great opportunity, but with playoff pressure, I’m smashing his under in hopes he crumbles.
KC @ BUF -2.5
It’s our Josh’s year. Go Bills.