Deebo Samuel big game out of motion against KC coverage
KC’s coverage is one of the best in the league, ranking 2nd in EPA allowed at -0.142 and shutting down Tyreek Hill in the Wild Card round.
However, Zay Flowers racked 115 yards against them in the Conference Championship. The way Zay finds success is usually through motion pre-snap, and he motioned 11 times on pass plays against KC.
Deebo ranks 10th in total receptions after pre-snap motion this year. I expect him to find ways to get open against KC’s coverage using this motion consistently throughout the game.
I also like Brandon Aiyuk against Sneed and his press coverage. Although he was able to shut down Tyreek Hill in the Ice Bowl, Aiyuk ranks 3rd in yards per route run against press coverage this season.
Pacheco gets targets and Kelce ties a record
It’s known that SF’s run defense isn’t great, so for KC to run the ball makes a ton of sense. Although, that assumes KC is patient. This season, when within one-score, Andy Reid passes the ball 68% of plays, which is 8% over expected. When trailing by 8-plus points, he passes on 75% of plays, at 6% over expected. In the Super Bowl against an offensive juggernaut, I can’t expect Andy Reid to stick to the run, but I can expect Nick Bosa to force Mahomes to dump it down to Pacheco.
SF is much better in coverage and play majority zone in the middle of the field. Kelce has 707 receiving yds against zone coverage this season (next best is 536 yds). Particularly in the playoffs, he has converted 51.9% of first downs or touchdowns on receptions. And because he’s only 3 TDs away from tying Jerry Rice’s playoff touchdown record, I’m taking him to score 3+ touchdowns because we need to get a little nuts in the last game of the year, and really, it’s all about headlines.