HOU +6.5 @ CIN
This spread opened at +7 and has been flirting with +6. CIN looked really good, last week. To me, HOU looked just as good, if not more exciting. Now, Tee Higgins isn’t expected to play on Sunday, due to injury, and Nico Collins could miss Week 10, as well. For HOU, this means Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz become heavy targets. These three were targeted 22 times, last week, for a total of 397 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.
CJ Stroud led the league in deep targets and completions, last week, with 15-for-23 on targets 10+ yards downfield. He had 4 TDs on passes 10+ yards with no INTs. On the year, Stroud ranks 3rd in deep target dropbacks, while throwing just 1 INT—Tua and Sam Howell have thrown 5 and 7 INTs on deep targets. CIN’s defense ranks 3rd-most in explosive plays allowed this season.
Per PFF, Tank Dell and Noah Brown have great matchups against CIN corners, specifically rookie, DJ Turner, who allowed 20 yards-per-reception on 3 receptions against the Bills. Dalton Schultz also has a great matchup against CIN coverage, particularly their linebackers. CIN’s coverage defense ranks 5th-worst in PFF grade, when TEs are targeted, allowing the 3rd-most EPA-per-play.
DET -3 @ LAC
This one is tricky. The line opened at -2, saw -1.5, and now it sits at -3. I think DET can cover, if Brandon Staley doesn’t take advantage of DET’s predictability.
DET runs the ball on 2nd & 3rd-and-short most of the time, where they specifically run the ball 100% of the time when under center on 3rd-and-1. On 2nd-and-long, DET has run the ball 92% of their plays when under center.
LAC could take advantage of these tendencies, but they also have allowed a new series of downs at the 5th-highest rate, at 74%. DET converts to new series of downs at the 6th-highest rate, at 75%.
If DET’s predictability isn’t exploited, Jared Goff will take control of this game. Jared Goff ranks 3rd in EPA-per-play in play action, while LAC allows the the most EPA per dropback in play action, specifically. They also rank last in the league in EPA allowed to passes over the middle of the field, per PFF. Jared Goff ranks 8th-best in EPA over the middle of the field.
TEN @ TB ML
I like TB in this spot, riding a 4-week skid, and 3 of which were 1-score outcomes. TB is hosting this game, as well, so the spread indicates TB being an underdog. Thoughts are that Will Levis will make one too many risky throws, and Baker Mayfield is able to perform well under pressure, like he has all season.
TEN has been a running football team, but we have seen them throw the ball more the last couple weeks with Will Levis. He had 4 TDs in his Week 8 start with 234 yards, so vibes were high, and they went into PIT, where Levis recorded a 51.8 PFF pass grade with 1 INT, 3 turnover-worthy plays, 0 EPA/play, and completed 22-of-39 pass attempts. TEN had much more success running the ball last week, but TB ranks 2nd-best in rush EPA allowed.