Quick plug: PFF has extended their analysis within the Fan Duel app with Tight End Matchups. I’m personally hammering TJ Hockenson this weekend.
LAC @ GB +3
Jordan Love recorded his highest PFF pass grade, last week. In the past 3 weeks, he ranks 6th in PFF pass grade and 5th in big time throws, with 7 recorded. Along with these big time throws, he went 12-for-18 for 87 yards on throws less than 2.5 seconds in Week 10, with zero interceptions and 1 TD. His performance in Week 10 moved him up PFF’s Bayesian QB Rankings 5 spots.
Per PFF’s WR matchups in the Fan Duel app, Jayden Reed has a good matchup against Ja’Sir Taylor. He had a season high 84 receiving yards last week, beating his 83 yards in Week 8 against MIN.
On the other end, GB could give Herbert trouble. Herbert struggles against Cover-3, and GB plays Cover-3 5th-most in the league. His completion percentage ranks 26th, while also ranking 3rd-most in incompletions categorized as “QB’s fault”.
SEA @ LAR ML
LAR are coming off their Bye, while SEA and Geno Smith are walking away from a nail-biting victory in the 4th quarter. Geno threw for 369 yards, where 98 went to DK Metcalf (44 yards on the last drive) and 92 to Tyler Lockett.
Luckily, Geno Smith faced a WAS pass rush that isn’t the same, because we know Geno isn’t great under pressure. He leads the league in throw away passes under pressure, at 16% rate, and he also leads the league in most EPA lost in these throw aways. On late downs, SEA passes +7% more than the league average. LAR rank 5th in total pass plays on late downs where the defender beats the protector, and they rank 10th in total QB hits.
MIN +2.5 @ DEN
This line actually feels crazy, and I’ll probably hit it a bunch of different ways. The Vikings played well last week, especially TJ Hockenson, and this has been a wonderful trend.
TJ Hockenson has been averaging over 20 fantasy points the last 4 weeks. Last week, with Josh Dobbs under center, he recorded 11 receptions, 134 yards, and 1 TD. His PFF receiving grade was 93.7, second-best for the week amongst WRs and TEs (Trey McBride recorded 94.3). Per PFF’s TE matchups in the Fan Duel app, Hockenson has a great matchup against DEN’s CBs, LBs, and Safeties. DEN’s LBs rank last in the league covering tight ends, and their CBs rank 26th.
On the other end of the ball, Russell Wilson sucks against Cover 0 or man coverage. MIN plays Cover 0 the most in the league by quite a bit. They also rank 5th-best in positive EPA allowed rate, at 38.9%.