GB +7.5 @ DET
First, I want to discuss GB’s Week 11 matchup against LAC, because I think, once again, many people will look at that game and think, “LAC blew it.” They did, of course, but if they played a rematch, I would argue we would see the same result.
We saw LAC pass-catchers record 6 drops, including potential touchdowns and big gains. Keenan Allen, with 116 yards, accounted for 3 of these drops and one of these dropped touchdown passes.
Yet, without this noise (LAC dropping touchdown passes), GB still came out ahead by 2 points, because their drives were more efficient overall.
Jordan Love completed 27-for-40 attempts for 322 yards and 2 TDs, topping 300 passing yards for the first time in his career. He had help, too, as this may have been the first true week we saw GB receivers step up and make big plays consistently. Specifically, Reed ran 3 times for 46 yards and a touchdown, while catching 4-for-5 receptions, and Doubs and Watson both caught TD passes, as well.
DET and Jared Goff threw just 3 passes over 10 yards downfield, last week against CHI, while also throwing 3 INTs. Goff did go 10-for-11 for 115 yards and a TD in the final 4:15 to win, which does give him credit, but this was against CHI. CHI ranks 28th defending the pass in the 4th quarter, when not counting garbage time. GB ranks 8th-best in EPA-allowed per dropback. Their defense ranks 6th-best in offense score rate, at 27.3%.
WAS @ DAL -11
WAS has a sack problem, and DAL causes a lot of sacks. DAL has the 2nd-best PFF pass rush grade, and they allow the 4th-least EPA per play on run plays, at -0.130.
WAS passes the ball at the highest rate in the league, at 72%. They pass on first down +11% over expected. WAS also has the 3rd highest sack rate on offense, at 10%. When pressured, they rank 2nd-worst in sack rate, at 26%. DAL’s pass rush has recorded 12 sacks on first down, ranking 6th-highest, and they lead the league in pressure rate on pass plays, at 47.3%. With these pressures, they also have the highest win percentage:
SF @ SEA +6.5
This spread feels like a trap, so I’m going to convince myself SEA can pull this off and cover 6.5, even with their recent injuries.
Geno Smith didn’t practice Monday (elbow/tricep) and was limited Tuesday, but he’s still probable going into Thursday. This is encouraging because Drew Lock went 2-for-6 and an INT, last week. As for the run game, Kenneth Walker is likely to miss this week and next due to his oblique, so Charbonnet will likely see more volume.
I like Zach Charbonnet to be successful in this game against the 49ers run defense, particularly in the red zone. SF’s run defense is pretty good, but in the red zone, they’ve allowed the most rush EPA per play in the league, at .343. Their average depth of tackle in the red zone is 3.4 yards. Charbonnet ranks 14th out of all backs in yards before contact, at 1.9 yards.