NFL Week 12: Small Favorites
Gronk is back and Tom Brady loves it, while Joe Mixon and the Bengals get it done in the second-half again.
🏈 Bucs -3.5 -105
🏈 Bengals -4 -110
It’s Week 12 and I’m so glad the Chiefs have a bye—I’m tired of chasing them around. Now, I can’t say betting against Jonathan Taylor is a responsible bet, but I’ll try my best to justify the Bucs against the spread.
Last week, Jonathan Taylor single handedly beat fantasy teams everywhere. In Buffalo, he rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns, as well as recording three receptions and a receiving touchdown. These numbers elevated him to 50.4 fantasy points—the 9th time 50 points has been surpassed. Last year, Alvin Kamara recorded 53.2 fantasy points on six touchdowns and 155 yards. Just ahead of him, and holding the highest fantasy points recorded, is Clinton Portis in 2003, while recording five touchdowns, 218 rushing yards, and 55.4 fantasy points.
In Taylor’s last eight games, he’s recorded over 100 total yards and at least one touchdown. He leads the league in rushing touchdowns at 13, and now rushing yards after surpassing Derrick Henry last Sunday. He’s a beast in the open field and isn’t afraid to get physical. Taylor leads the league with 44 broken tackles, ranks third in yards after contact, and sits second behind Nick Chubb in yards per attempt at 5.8.
Now, the Colts are hot on a three-game win-streak. They’ve also gone 6-2 in their last eight games after going 0-3 to start the year. They’re a dangerous team like any who has success on the ground. Yet, they face Tampa Bay this week—the best in the league at stopping the run.
Tampa Bay snapped a two-game loss-streak against the Giants on Monday night, and they looked really good with their favorite tight end back on the field. Gronk recorded six receptions and 71 yards, while Chris Godwin recorded six receptions, 65 yards, and a touchdown, Mike Evans recorded 6 receptions, 73 yards, and a touchdown, and Leonard Fournette recorded 6 receptions and 39 yards. Gronk gave a threat to the middle of the field that the Bucs have needed when facing a lot of these two-high shells. And when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans get cooking, they’re a treat.
On Monday night, Mike Evans broke the Bucs all-time touchdown record at 72, and he’s currently tied with Cooper Kupp on receiving touchdowns this season at 10. He’s a lot of fun to watch because he makes catches that a lot of receivers couldn’t make. He has 10 contested catches on the year, and leads the league in contested catch rate at 83.3%—nearly 10% higher than second ranked Jakobi Meyers. Throughout his career, this has been a theme. Since 2011, Evans is tied for second with Julio Jones in football “And-Ones”—catching the ball six times on defensive pass-interference calls. Brandon Marshall has seven.
On the defensive end, the Bucs rank first in EPA per play allowed on the rush and in success rate at 32.8%. Early downs are much the same, with a 31.4% success rate. Against the Bills, the Colts ran the ball 70% of the time on first down. With Vita Vea likely to play on Sunday per Bruce Arians, we can expect them to give the Colts trouble in a place they’ve found a lot of success—and really their only success.
The Colts rely heavily on their run game. In Buffalo, Wentz threw for 106 yards at 55% completion percentage (13.07% below expectation). A week prior against the Jags, he threw for 180 yards at 64.7% (5.7% below expectation). On the year, he ranks 23rd in completion percentage at 63%, and he’s known for making questionable plays in key moments of the game.
With Jonathan Taylor’s explosive outing last week, he’ll probably have much of the public behind him, giving some value to the Bucs. I look at this as a matchup between Jonathan Taylor and the Bucs rush defense, and Tom Brady with Gronk against the Colts’ secondary.
Another matchup I have my eyes on is Cincinnati hosting the Steelers. The Steelers are 5-4-1 on the year, with their tie against Detroit in Pittsburgh. They lost last week against the Chargers, and the Bengals are coming off a win against the Raiders in Vegas. In that win, Mixon got the respect he deserves.
Joe Mixon had 30 carries, 123 yards, and two touchdowns last Sunday. In the second half, he had 19 of his 30 carries for 97 yards. He’s been given more opportunities in the second half of their games, and it’s been correlating with their second half success.
On the year, the Bengals lead the league in second-half points per game. Mixon ranks second in second-half carries at 98 and fourth in second-half yards at 475, per The Athletic’s Jay Morrison. Pittsburgh ranks 25th in opponent second-half points per game, and 29th in the last three games at 18.0 points allowed.
Ja’Marr Chase is another asset to the Bengals’ offense that makes them fun to watch. He leads the league in yards per route run amongst rookies, and against man-coverage, he ranks second in receiving yards at 409 with three touchdowns. Behind Tyler Lockett, he ranks second in 20-plus yard targets at 23 with nine receptions and four touchdowns. His connection with college teammate, Joe Burrow, is priceless. Pittsburgh ranks 25th in opponent passer rating per game, and per PFF, they rank 29th in coverage rating.
Oh, and the Bengals’ kicker, Evan McPherson, went off last week recording four field goals at 54, 53, 51, and 47 yards. He now holds the Bengals’ season record for made 50-plus yard field goals, and being able to kick well in a four-point spread is valuable.