NFL Week 13: Playoff Pictures are Forming
I'm betting against the Seahawks the rest of the year, and the Vikings need a win against a winless Detroit as the eighth man out.
š 49ers -3.5 +100
š Vikings -7 -110
I finally went 5-0 last week in pickāems. It felt very nice, but really, doing well doesnāt sound as interesting as ābad beats,ā so Iāll leave it there.
Monday night was an eventful game, and good thing, because the Manning Cast wasnāt on air. Washington over Seattle was the closest of all my picks throughout the weekend, so the rush felt good, but really, I should be thanking Russell Wilson. Holy smokes, he is bad. And no disrespect to Taylor Heinickeāheās a baller. But man, Iām at the point where I am going to bet against the Seahawks the rest of the season.Ā Itās that simple.
Against Washington, Russ was able to get his offense into the red zone twiceāonce in the first half and once with 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter on third and long. It was on that last drive that he finally got the ball into DK Metcalfās hands for the first time in the ballgame. And that third down conversion was only the fourth conversion of the evening out of 12 attempts. These stats have been a theme for Russ this season, and more so since his return from injury in Week 10.
Russellās claimed 19 hours a day rehab training on a finger injury seems excessive, but I suppose as someone who uses his fingers for a living (not you, Urban Meyer), itās warranted. Either way, it didnāt work, and Geno Smith probably should have remained in the driversā seat for a few more weeks.
Since Week 10, the Seahawks rank 30th in red zone attempts per game at 1.7 (ahead of Cleveland and Detroit)ātheir season average has been 2.3, ranking 29th. They rank 23rd in third down conversions per game at 4.3ātheir season average has been 3.5, ranking last. They rank last in first downs per game at 13.7ātheir season average is 16.5, ranking 31st (good teams average 21-plus first downs per game).
Against Washington, the Seahawks had a total time of possession of 18:20 minutes. Theyāve ranked last in first half possession percentage since Week 10 and throughout the season. Now, time of possession can be blamed on the defense, but when you canāt convert on third downs, youāre going to have a tough time keeping the ball in the offenseās hands.Ā One thing that may help is getting the damn ball to your best player.
DK Metcalf has had two receptions the entire season on third and short. Brandin Cooks has had seven. At 6ā4ā 229 lbs, he has 32 first downs on the year. Devonte Adams is 6ā1ā 215 lbs and has 52 first downs. Thatās the difference between a quarterback that gets his best player the ball and one that doesnāt.
Since Russell Wilson has returned, the Seahawks have lost three straight. They went scoreless against the Packers, scored 13 points against the Cardinals, and scored 15 points against Washington. They didnāt cover any of these games. San Francisco has won and covered their last three, scoring at least 30 points in each matchup against the Rams, Jags, and Vikings. Iām betting on a hot team staying hot and cold team staying cold.
Minnesota goes to Detroit for Week 13, and as it sits right now, theyāre the eighth man out of the NFC playoff picture. Against the worst team in the NFL, they need this win.
As much as I like to root for Dan Campbell, Iām out completely on these Lions. Their performance against the Bears on Thanksgiving was horrendous. On the Bearsā final drive, the Lions were looking for a red zone stop on 3rd and 9 with a one point lead. With 1:53 left on the clock and two timeouts, they still had a chance to win the damn thing if the Bears settled for a field goal. Yet, the Lionsā disorganized sideline called a timeout after they had just called one, resulting in a five yard penalty and the Bears picking up the 3rd and short instead of a 3rd and long.
To be honest, it was tough seeing the look of disappointment on Campbellās faceāhe canāt catch a break, and he just looks tired of it all.
Now without DāAndre Swift due to injury (their one gleam of hope), they have the 2021 worst record sealed. Their only chance of a win could be in Seattle in Week 17.Ā
Getting penalized for back-to-back timeouts is idiotic late in a close game, but Mike Zimmer canāt hide from this mistake either. In Week 8 against the Cowboys, Zimmer did something very similar, calling consecutive timeouts on 3rd and 16 with a three point lead and a minute left in the fourth quarter. The 3rd and forever turned into 3rd and manageable for Ezekiel Elliott, and the Cowboys ended up scoring a touchdown in their next series and winning the game.
Minnesota lost last week to San Francisco, but they were within one-score again for the 10th time this year. And even though they struggle at times to get on the other side of the scoreboard, Justin Jefferson continues to be a huge threat on their offense. Against the 49ers, he had four receptions for 83 yards with an aDOT of 16.5 yards. He leads the league in air-yards at 1,473 and ranks third in total yards at 1,027. His longest catch this year is 56 yards, and he has the most catches for over 15 yards since 2020 at 62 receptions. Heās a deep-ball beast, recording 9 receptions over 20 yards this year, behind Tyler Lockett with 13.
When the ball finds its way into Justin Jeffersonās hands, the Vikings tend to do well. When Kirk does Kirk things, they walk away with another, ācould-aāshould-a.āĀ
With the playoff picture closing in, they really do need this win against a winless Lions, and at -7, itās still one-score material.