NFL Week 14: Responsibly Betting Jacksonville
Tennessee has struggled with turnovers since losing Derrick Henry, giving the Jags an opportunity to stay in the fight. The Broncos run away early against Detroit.
đ Jags +8 -105
đ Broncos -10 -110
đ Bengals +2 -110 (Assuming Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon play)
At Week 14, most fantasy leagues are wrapping up their regular seasons, giving us just five more Sundays until the NFL playoffs begin. Thatâs five Sundays to go on a run and make our goddamn money back before upping our playoff antes. This Sunday, Iâm starting with Jacksonvilleânow thatâs responsible gambling.
Jacksonville opened at +9.5 and now sit at +8. I took them early, but Iâd take them again the way they stand right nowâeight points is too many for Tennessee to give. Since losing Derrick Henry in Week 9, they have yet to cover, and in their last two weeks, theyâve been outscored 58-26 against Houston and New England.
Against the Texans, the Titans did enough statistically to win the game. Tannehill went 35 for 52 for 323 yards. The time of possession was in their favor, and they had 11 more first downs than Houston. Yet, they had five turnovers.Â
Against the Patriots, they did enough on the ground statistically to take control of the game like they did with Henry. Dontrell Hilliard rushed for 131 yards and DâOnta Foreman rushed for 109 yards. Their late down rushes recorded 2.07 EPA and 80% success rate, while the time of possession remained in their favor. Yet, they had four turnovers.Â
Since Week 9, Tennessee ranks 24th in EPA per play and 24th in first half drop-back EPA. Theyâre still running the ball at a high rate without Henry, ranking fifth in rush play percentage, but they canât seem to get points when they approach the red zone. In their last three games, they rank 26th in red zone touchdown percentage at 50%.
Now, the Titans lead the AFC South at 8-4, ahead of Indianapolis at 7-6. They probably have the easiest schedule the last five weeks of the year, so they could let a couple games slip, and Jacksonville would be just the team to do it to them.
Jacksonville doesnât put points on the board (ranked 31st at 15 points per game), but they have limited offensesâ efficiency. They beat the Bills and limited Singletary to 16 yards, and they only allowed one touchdown to the Colts in a game they covered 10.5 points. And with Bud Dupree, Tennesseeâs pass rusher, still out on injury, the Titans rank 30th in pass rush per PFF. Trevor Lawrence could have a day against a Titans team that is anxiously waiting for Derrick Henry to return.
Detroit was filled with relief last week as they pulled off their first win of the season. Time and time again it seemed as though they couldnât get out of their own way, yet the Vikings gave them a chance, and they took it on a 75 yard drive and an 11 yard touchdown pass in loose coverage.Â
The Vikings about did it again last night against Pittsburgh, after giving up a 29-0 lead.
Detroit beat the Vikings, but other than the walk-Goff touchdown, they didnât show anything that proves they have potential for more wins the rest of the season. They went two for eleven on third downs and Goff continues to struggle under pressure. He went one for eight and six yards under pressure, and he had 11 late down passes that had just 27% success rate.
Denver ranks 27th in pass rush win rate, but Fangio might turn up the dial against Goff. Either way, if the Broncos score on their first two drives, theyâll run away with this one.
The Broncos and Teddy Bridgewater have done really well this year when they get an early lead. In their last two big wins against the Cowboys and Chargers, they took a 14-0 lead to the Chargers in the first quarter and won the game 28-13. Against the Cowboys, they took a 13-0 lead at the beginning of the second quarter and won the game 30-16. In the Chargers victory, Bridgewater recorded 8.8 EPA, and in the Cowboys win, he recorded 12.6 EPA. They were also able to run the ball well as they maintained these leads.
With much success, Denver splits their rushes between rookie, Javonte Williams, and the seven-year vet, Melvin Gordon. Against Dallas, Williams had 17 carries for 111 yards, while Gordon had 21 carries for 80 yards. Against the Chargers, Williams had 14 carries for 54 yards, while Gordon had 17 carries for 83 yards. Between the two of them, theyâre roughly 1.6 attempts of each other each game, and theyâre the NFLâs only rushing duo with 550-plus yards a piece, per Nick Kosmider from The Athletic. Whatâs great about this tag-team is that they hold similarities in their balanced skill sets, making it almost impossible to guess play-calls when one back is in the gameâsomething thatâs different from a duo like Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.
If Teddy B. can get an early start, Denverâs run game will begin to roll, and the score will quickly get out of hand in Denver. Iâve enjoyed watching this Denver team click on offense with Bridgewaterâs consistencyâI just hate to see him back out of a chance to tackle like he did in their loss to the Eagles. It makes me sad.
Maybe some lessons from Andy Dalton would be good.
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With a heavy heart, RIP, Demaryius Thomas. Denver and the NFL will miss you.