NFL Week 15: Teasers
With players added to Covid lists every day, we need all the points we can get.
+5 point 3-leg teaser @ +180:
🏈 Patriots +7.5
🏈 Packers -0.5
🏈 49ers -4.5
Urban Meyer was officially fired yesterday, and the line has gone from Jaguars -3 to Jaguars -5. Last week, I bet the Jaguars to cover against the Titans, which ended badly, but it looks like I was just a week too early.
What a mess. But man am I sad to see this circus end. Urban Meyer made history as the first NFL head coach to be fired mid-season during their first year. It has happened after the season—something the Bears will likely do with Matt Nagy—but never with weeks left on the schedule. Yet, Khan didn’t really have a choice after nobody seemed to defend Urban Meyer when a he was accused for his dysfunctional locker room and saying, “I’m a head ball coach, I’ll kick you whenever the fuck I want.”
And with the drama in the Jaguars organization, there’s the Covid positive tests that are running through teams right now. This makes it very difficult to make bets when we’re not even sure who the hell is going to play, but it’s a perfect opportunity to add some teasers to the bet slip.
Let’s start in Lucas Oil Stadium, a place that hasn’t seen the likes of Bill Belichick in six years. He walked away victorious that day, nothing new from the six years before that, as the Colts haven’t beat the Patriots in 12 long years. And even then, in 2009, they won by just one point. However, these Colts are a bigger threat than years past.
The Colts are a run-heavy team with their MVP, Jonathan Taylor, running over and through defenders. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards by more than 300, and he has over 100 yards on the next guy in yards after contact. His yards per attempt is 5.6, and he has 16 total touchdowns, ahead of James Conner and Joe Mixon. The Colts rely on him heavily because they’ve had success giving him the ball.
The Colts rank 8th in rush play percentage at 46.14% with great efficiency. Their earned-points-average (EPA) on rush plays ranks third overall with 44.4% success rate per rush, ranking fifth. Against the Bills, they cranked it up even hotter against a solid coverage team. The Colts beat the Bills in late November 41-15 with a time-of-possession over 60%. They rushed the ball 45 times. On average, the Titans lead the league in rush attempts per game at 31.8. Taylor rushed for 185 yards on 32 carries with four touchdowns.
Against teams with better rush defenses, like the Bucs, the Colts still managed to put up 24 points in the first half. Yet, they adjusted their usual game plan and found success early through the air. Against the Bucs, they passed the ball 74% of their plays. In the first half, Wentz tore it up with 0.185 EPA per pass attempt and 50% success rate. His completion percentage was 66.7%—one percent above expected—and he averaged 10.8 air yards per pass. In the second half, the Bucs put him back in his place. Wentz’s completion percentage dropped to 57.9%—13 percent below expected—and he averaged 8 air yards per pass. The Colts ended up losing the game 38-31 after holding a 71% win-probability at halftime.
As we all know, Belichick is the best in the game at limiting your greatest strength and exposing your greatest weaknesses. It’s what every coach tries their best to do against their opponents, but Belichick is a legend at it.
“He’s gonna do something that you’ve exposed on film that you might not even feel is a weakness, but he’s gonna find that weakness, and he’s gonna exploit it.”—former Colts linebacker D’Qwell Jackson, who went 0-3 against the Patriots.
He’s good at adjusting game plans week to week. Against rookie quarterbacks, he fools them into making critical mistakes. Against Tom Brady and the Bucs on a rainy night, he limited Brady to 51.2% completion percentage on 43 pass attempts. Against the Bills, he famously passed the ball three times the entire game in a windy Monday night, winning 14-10.
You can guarantee Belichick will take away Jonathan Taylor tomorrow and force Carson Wentz to beat them through the air. And if I was a betting man, I’d bet against Wentz in this scenario.
The Patriots are on a seven-game win streak, while covering the spread every game. They’re the best scoring defense in the league, allowing 15.4 points per game and 7.2 points per game in the past month. They’ve also allowed just 2.4 points per game in the fourth quarter. If Belichick can control the pace of the game, his Patriots will force Carson Wentz to make plays—something we should all be concerned with.
The Packers are first in the NFC at 10-3, and a win this weekend will clinch them a playoff spot. They’re 11-2 against the spread, 3-0 in non-conference games, and 5-1 on the road. Not to mention, they managed to cover a 12-point spread against Chicago last week after trailing six points at half—totaling a 21 point swing. Aaron Rodgers is dealing right now, and I think the best story to come out of this season would be Rodgers winning a Super Bowl to then leave the organization and NFL entirely to join Pat McAfee and the boys.
Last week, Rodgers threw 341 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions in the Packers’ sixth consecutive win over the Bears. Although they were destroyed on special teams, they found ways to get their best receiver the ball after the first quarter.
The Packers’ offense is lights out. They rank second in time-of-possession and second in rush EPA per play, behind Tampa Bay. They rank first in drop back EPA per pass attempt and fifth in success rate at 51.5%. Their yards per play averages 7.3 yards, ranking seventh. Rodgers leads the league in passing efficiency, and his completion percentage ranks seventh at 71% (5.1% above expected).
Baltimore is on a two-game loss-streak, losing to Pittsburgh 19-20 and Cleveland 22-24. Lamar Jackson is listed as questionable this weekend due to his ankle sprain where he was carted off the field last week in the first half. Yet, Baltimore’s biggest strength is probably their running game, with or without Jackson.
Ahead of the Packers, Baltimore ranks first in time-of-possession. They’re the third highest rushing team in the league and record 144.3 rushing yards per game. Unfortunately for them, they’re not efficient.
Baltimore ranks 26th in third-down conversions and 29th in turnover margin. They also rank 29th in late down drop back EPA per pass attempt and success rate. On early downs, they rank 20th in total EPA per play. They’ll likely continue to run the ball heavily against the Packers with Lamar banged up, but they won’t be able to slow down Aaron Rodgers’ offense, especially in the second half.
The 49ers have won five of their seven games and have entered themselves into the Playoff picture. Last week, against the Bengals, they had moments of looking like a dangerous Playoff contender. Deebo Samuel returned from injury and put on his running back hat with Elijah Mitchell out on injury. He recorded 8 rushes for 37 yards and one touchdown, and oh boy can he run.
George Kittle proved why he’s one of the best tight ends to ever play the game as well. He even put himself in the history books after recording back-to-back games with 150-plus receiving yards—the only tight end to ever do it. Against the Seahawks he had 9 receptions for 181 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, he had 13 receptions for 151 yards and one touchdown. He leads tight ends in receiving yards at 757 on the year, and he ranks third in yards-after-catch at 396. Amongst his 37 first downs this year, he had a big-boy first-down snag on 3rd and 10 in the fourth quarter against the Bengals that set them up to win the game before overtime (Robbie Gould missed a 47-yard field goal).
Since Kittle’s return in Week 9, the 49ers rank 8th in EPA per play and second in the first half. Garoppolo has been able to spread the ball across the field much more, connecting with Brandon Aiyuk more than he has compared to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. They look really dangerous when they’re able to spread the field, and Garoppolo threw 7.9% above completion percentage.
The Falcons won last week against Carolina, but they have yet to win consecutive games this year (not counting their Bye). They look good when Cordarrelle Patterson makes a play and looks like the man amongst boys that he is, but the Falcons have struggled to put points on the board. They rank 26th in points per game and 21st in red zone touchdown percentage at 57.5%. They pass heavier, but they rank 22nd in yards per pass, and Matt Ryan’s average depth of target is 7.3 yards, ranking 28th amongst quarterbacks.
I like the 49ers in this one, but I’m not fully invested in the 9.5 points, just because Matt Ryan could be Matty Ice once again. The 49ers are coming off an emotional win, so the public likes them a lot, and the 9.5 points may not be in my favor. So, I’m going to throw them in a tease to give myself more points, especially with the amount of players each day entering the Covid lists. No chances taken—we’re being responsible gamblers here.