HOU @ ATL -1.5
After HOU’s dominance against PIT and ATL’s garbage performance against JAX last week, I think now is the perfect time to hop on ATL at home with a spread this tight. Now, this isn’t easy because CJ Stroud is balling and Ridder hasn’t looked worse than he does right now.
Against JAX, Ridder had a total EPA -18.9 with two interceptions on back-to-back drives on first down, one of which being a pick-six.
On the year, Ridder has a turnover-worthy play rate of 6.6%—the worst. Anything over 6% is really bad. The only players to go over 6% in recent years are Taylor Heinicke in 2022, Mike Glennon in 2021, Ryan Tannehill in 2018, and Blaine Gabbert in 2017.
Luckily for ATL, HOU has the least number of pass-rush snaps and the least amount of sacks in the league this season, so this is a perfect week for Ridder to get some confidence back. Hell, maybe we’ll see Kyle Pitts with the ball.
On pass plays where tight ends are targeted, HOU allows the second-most open target percentage and 0.21 EPA per play. Against JAX, they allowed Evan Engram 7 receptions for 67 yards and against IND, they allowed 1 TD and combined 5 receptions for 65 yards to IND’s two TEs.
TEN @ IND +2.5
Similarly to HOU @ ATL, I think we’re catching a spread here that is influenced by recency bias. We saw a glimpse of the old Derrick Henry last week, delivering a beating to CIN’s defense and recording an 89.8 PFF offense grade with 97 yards after contact.
The Titans can be good, especially with Mike Vrable leading the troops, but they have been and still are wildly inconsistent. Remember, Ryan Tannehill went 13-for-25 against CLE with 104 yards and zero touchdowns. Derrick Henry had 11 rushes for 20 yards.
The Titans’ defense has only faced 7 QB rush attempts this season, and they’re EPA-per-play allowed ranks in the middle of the league. Anthony Richardson could throw a wrinkle in their defensive performance.
Anthony Richardson leads the league in explosive play rate on pass plays 20+ yards and run plays 12+ yards, per The Athletic. He’s recorded at least 1 rushing touchdown in his three starts, and his ADOT against LAR was 13.5 yards.
PHI -4.5 @ LAR
Cooper Kupp is likely back this week for the first time this season after a preseason injury. A lot is still uncertain, as reception props for the Rams aren’t available yet on sportsbooks. This makes me think that the spread is vulnerable, and I lean toward taking PHI because they don’t have this variability.
Despite going to OT at home against WAS, PHI is feeling themselves in the pass game. AJ Brown has two-straight weeks with over 100 receiving yards with 131 against TB and 175 against WAS and two TDs. Jalen Hurts has almost 600 yards passing in those games with 6 big-time throws. He’s pushing the ball downfield in big moments because he’s given time to do so, averaging 3.10 seconds TTT at 3rd-longest in the league.
However, PHI’s coverage defense looked bad against WAS. As Ben Solak mentions at the Ringer, Sam Howell was able to move the ball downfield effortlessly agianst the Eagle’s zone coverage, which means Matthew Stafford could have similar success. They’ll need to lean into their pass rush more to make Stafford use his legs. PHI ranks 6th in pass rush snaps and 6th in win-percentage. Jalen Carter and Aaron Donald lead all DTs in pressures this season.