SEA @ CIN -2.5
SEA has won their last 3 games against NYG, CAR, and a scrappy win against DET in overtime. They’ve managed to win games, but their offense hasn’t looked pretty. In dropbacks, SEA leads the league in pass plays that end in throw aways. Under pressure, these throwaways make up 20% of their dropbacks. The next worst team in throwaway rate under pressure is CAR, at 16%. What’s more concerning is that these throwaways are happening at important moments in the game, affecting SEA’s EPA considerably.
They’re also last in the league in EPA per scramble.
SEA doesn’t do well under pressure, and CIN ranks 10th in total pressures generated this season. They also rank 7th in pressures generated-over-pass rush snaps. Their defense ranks 6th in total hurries that cause negative EPA, and they lead the league in sacks.
After Joe Burrow’s breakout game against ARI, with 3 TDs and 317 yards, SEA could be in a bit of trouble. Ja’Marr Chase was targeted 19 times last week—the most in his career.
ARI played man-coverage 9 times and allowed a reception on all 9 coverage snaps. Seattle does not play man-coverage very often, so I don’t expect them to give CIN free money, but they do rank 6th-worst in success rate on pass plays in their primary coverage, per PFF.
NE @ LV -3
I’m excited for this game, and maybe I’m a little nuts. It’s the revenge game happening in Vegas back-to-back seasons—no one said the NFL was based on fairness.
I really don’t see a way out for NE, other than benching Mac Jones, and I don’t think Belichick is at that point, yet. It’s one thing to be sacked and have incompletions or turnover-worthy plays, but Mac Jones has 3 pick-sixes this season. That’s truly incredible.
NE also doesn’t have a receiver ranked in the top-40, per PFF receiving grade. Vegas has Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams. Now, Adams was only targeted 4 times last week, but I don’t see that repeating against NE.
Of Vegas’ total dropbacks, they lead the league in sack rate, at 30%, and last week, Jimmy G. was sacked 4 times.
But NE doesn’t pass rush often, ranking 24th in pass rush snaps and 27th in pass rush win percentage, when they do. They’ve only hit the quarterback 13 times this season, ranking 30th. Vegas relies on successful pass plays, and they’ll likely pass more against NE, similar to last year.
DET @ TB +3.5
DET and Jared Goff played solid last week, scoring 3 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs, without Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s looking like Amon-Ra St. Brown starts this week, but Gibbs appears doubtful. So, by the transitive property, Goff should have another heater.
Last week, Goff went 7-of-9 and 2 TDs on passes of 10-plus yards downfield, and all season, he has 6 TDs on 10-plus yard completions. He’s been more aggressive and Amon-Ra will help, but TB ranks 3rd-best on defense in receptions allowed over 10 yards. DET has performed well, ranking 1st targeting single-coverage, but TB never plays single-coverage, ranking 28th in total single-coverage snaps.
TB’s defense doesn’t fit nicely with DET’s early success, and on offense, it could be similar. DET’s bread and butter is pass rush. They rank 2nd-most in pass rush snaps with Aidan Hutchinson, and they lead the league in total hurries forced.
However, Baker Mayfield leads the league in EPA per play on pass rush snaps, where him and Josh Allen are the only quarterbacks with positive EPA on those plays. Baker also leads the league in EPA per play when hurried, with only 1 sack and 1 turnover-worthy play. His completion percentage also leads the league when hurried, at 65.6%. The next best quarterback is CJ Stroud, at 57.5%.