DET +3 @ BAL
After losing to PIT and committing 7 drops on targeted passes, BAL took care of a win against TEN, in London, where they maintained a win-probability of 60+% the entire game. This looked similar a week prior, until chaos ensued.
BAL at 4-2 has been an okay team against bad-to-mediocre offenses. DET is their first big-boy game, and I think there’s value in this and getting DET +3. Per the Athletic, Baltimore hasn’t faced an offense ranked in the top 10 in DVOA.
Offensively for DET, they’ve been explosive passing the ball downfield, ranking 2nd to the Dolphins in plays resulting in 20+ yards, including 12 completions on targets beyond 20. BAL’s defense allows the least amount of receptions on these deep targets, but they haven’t faced a quarterback as aggressive as Jared Goff, other than the shadow of Joe Burrow.
BAL’s rushing offense is where they’ve found most of their success. They have good receivers, but they lead the league in rush attempts and 3rd in rushing yards, at 903. They’re also leading the league in explosive rush plays of 10+ yards, at 31.
On the other end, DET’s defense leads the league in fewest explosive run plays allowed, at 5. The NYG have allowed 27. On rushes of just 4+ yards, they rank 3rd fewest and 10th in EPA allowed on all rush plays.
LV @ CHI +2.5
Jimmy G and Justin Fields are both sidelined with injuries, so anything goes. Shootout, snooze-fest, or clown show?
Last week, LV won a game they shouldn’t have, as Mac Jones was sacked in the end zone for a safety and allowing Vegas to cover the 2.5 point spread. Per net success rate, NE should have won.
Tyson Bagent will start for the Bears, making him the 4th Division II quarterback in the past 20 years to start a game, and he comes in with accolades. Bagent held the NCAA record for all-time touchdown passes (159) and holds the DII record for all-time passing yards (17,034) and total touchdowns (171), per ESPN. This is the kinda hope that a Bears fan digs up.
Maybe Bagent will throw it to DJ Moore. That’d be cool. Not only does DJ Moore have the most contested catches in the league, but he also has been labeled open on 107 pass snaps, per PFF, but he’s been targeted just 15 times on those plays. Stefon Diggs, who has been labeled open the same number of snaps and records a similar PFF overall receiving grade, has been targeted twice as much.
GB -1.5 @ DEN
GB is coming off their bye and a loss to LV. This bye may not have came at a perfect time for them, because they needed to check the tape and allow Aaron Jones to get healthier. They face DEN this week, and although it’s in Denver, the Broncos will allow GB to make small mistakes, as they warm back up.
DEN’s defense ranks last in EPA per dropback allowed and 3rd-last in rush EPA allowed.
They rank 2nd-worst in EPA/play allowed in first half and rank 3rd-worst in the second half. The Jets flip a switch in the second half.
GB’s offense is sluggish in the first half, but their successful drive rate in the second half ranks best in the league, at 46.4%. The Bills have the same number of second half drives and success rate, scoring on 13-of-28 total second half drives. This accounts for TDs and field goals, but GB ranks 2nd in TD% on these drives, at 35.7%. The Dolphins lead the league at 37.8% on 9 more drives.
Jordan Love hasn’t been great, ranking last in completion percentage, at 55.2%, with the highest ADOT amongst quarterbacks. He’s also 2nd-last in expected completion percentage, which means it’s mostly his fault. This appears true, as Jordan Love ranks 28th in total pass attempts to open receivers and 27th in completion percentage to open receivers in 85 attempts. Only three of those incompletions were the receivers' fault.
Jordan Love needed the bye, so I think there’s value in the week off, giving him time to figure some things out and time for Aaron Jones to save the day.