NFL Week 7: Early Looks
Belichick needs to grow some balls, and the Raiders are going to keep winning without their head coach because who needs him?
š Patriots -6.5 -110
š Raiders -3.5 -110
There were three Week 6 games that went into overtime, and there could have been two more as Jacksonville scored on a last-second field goal, and the Bills failed to convert on a controversial QB sneak on fourth down near their opponentās end zone. I love free football as much as the next guy, but Iām going to need some of Dicky Vās Pepto-Bismol if this keeps up.
My first best bet for Week 7 is the Jets at Patriots at -6.5. The Jets are coming off their bye, and the Patriots are recovering from an overtime loss to the Cowboys that probably could have been avoided.Ā
The big concern coming out of the Patriotsā loss to Dallas is Bill Belichickās aggressiveness, or lack thereof. The Patriots have been conservative all year. Theyāve only gone for it on fourth down just three times this season (all of which came when they were down 28-13 against the Saints), and they rank dead-last in the rate they should go for it on fourth-down and donāt, according to Ben Baldwinās fourth-down algorithm. Yet, against Dallas there were a few instances that really had us scratching our heads.
The first time Belichickās conservatism stood out was 1:30 left in the first half, and Belichick chose to kneel and head to the locker room early with a 14-10 lead. This surprised the hell out of me. Even if they get the ball back to start the second half, why wouldnāt they try to extend the lead as much as possible, especially against Dallasā offense? The best-case scenario for the Patriots would be to score right before halftime and right after halftime, extending their lead to 28-10 in the third quarter (assuming they scored touchdowns). The worst-case scenario would be that the Cowboys forced a turnover before half and scored a touchdown, then stopped the Patriotsā first second-half drive, resulting in a 14-17 scoreboard in Dallasā favor. Either Belichick didnāt have faith in Mac Jones in a two-minute drill, or he knew he could score on the first-drive of the second half after discussion in the locker room. The Patriots proceeded to go three and out after halftime.Ā
On three other conservative occasions, the Patriots elected to punt when they probably should have gone for it (or it was at least recommended that they go for it according to the numbers). The Patriots punted five times in this game.
The Cowboys were 3 for 13 on third downs, but they went 4 for 5 on recommended fourth downs and converted twice to extend their drives. Dallasā offense stayed on the field for 39 minutes, and ultimately gassed the Patriotsā defense as CeeDee Lamb walked into the end zone in OT.
All that said, I do still believe Bill Belichick will grow more confident in his rookie quarterback going forward and allow him to make big plays and big mistakes that he can learn from. Mac Jones has the poise and toughnessāhe just needs the experience. Heās been beaten up a lot this year already, but it amazes me how well he forgets and moves on to the next play. In the first half against Dallas, Jones was smoked as his backup right tackle missed his block, yet Jones shook it off and played on.Ā
And late in the game, Jones threw a pick-six, but came back on the field and threw a 75-yard touchdown on the first play of the next drive. Heās got the qualities of a great quarterback, and Iām excited to watch this guy fill Tom Bradyās large shoes. Just protect the man, please.
Against the Jets is a great opportunity for Mac Jones to let loose and for Bill Belichick to be more aggressive. We all know Belichick loves beating up the new kid, and Zach Wilson is fresh meat.
Last outing, the Patriots went to New York and forced Wilson to throw 4 interceptions and go 19 for 33 and just 210 yards. I expect a similar showing from young Zach this Sunday. The Patriots need this win to have a chance at the post-season because their next three games are against the Chargers, Panthers, and Browns, and theyāll probably need to win two of those three if they lose against the Jets.
My next best bet is Eagles at Raiders at -3.5. After the Bears beat the Raiders and Gruden stepped away from the organization, I was concerned the Raiders hot start to the year was all-for-nothing. And then the Raiders went to Denver and beat the shit out of the Broncos like they had something to prove.
In their first game without Gruden, the Raidersā offense set a season high in EPA per drive, EPA per snap, and points scored. Denverās defense isnāt where they would like it to be, but theyāre still coached by the defensive guru, Vic Fangio, and Derek Carr threw for 341 yards, two touchdowns, and recorded a 134.4 quarterback rating. Heās now the only quarterback this year with four games of 300-plus yards.
Derek Carr gets to 300 yards per game by being aggressive and making big-time throws. He leads the league in 20-plus yard completions at 18 and in yardage at 603 yards. His aDOT is 9.8, ranked 4th. Whatās interesting is he does this without play action, while the Raiders run 86.3% of their plays without even pretending to run.Ā
Carr can still get it done on the offensive end without Gruden in his ear, but what I have loved most about the Raiders this season is their defense and Maxx Crosby. Iāve talked about Maxx Crosbyās effectiveness before, but he really is a hoot to watch. The man has no off-switch.Ā
Maxx Crosby has 7 sacks on the year and 219 rushes, and he leads the league in quarterback hits and hurries. The rest of the Raidersā defense ranks 4th in defensive DVOA and 2nd in opponent passing yards allowed per pass at 5.9. Per PFF, they rank 1st in pass rush and coverage. On Sunday, Jalen Hurts is going to have problems.
Jalen Hurts has been a disappointment to watch this season. Heās wildly inaccurate at 62.5% completion percentage, which is actually 0.1% higher than expected completion percentage per Next Gen Stats, which correlates right along with the Eaglesā offense.Ā
The Eaglesā offense is as predictable as a hangover on Sunday. They snap out of shotgun 92.6% of their snapsāthe league average is 63.6%. All season, Hurts has been under center five times. This makes it very easy for defenses to make decisions, and the Bucs rushed the pass 54.5% of Hurtsā drop backs, while Hurts completed a mere 4 out of 13 passes under pressure.Ā
Now, the Eagles do well keeping the ball on the ground and rank first in early down rush EPA. Yet, Jalen Hurts has been their leading rusher in three games this season, and their running backs havenāt rushed over 60 yards. Jalen isnāt accurate and is more effective on the run, but with the Eaglesā poor offensive play-calls and the Raidersā edge rushers, I donāt see this offense changing.