Quick plug: check out the FanDuel app’s Explore tab for PFF analysis. It’s something I’ve been working on this season, so I’m happy it’s finally available in the best sportsbook app in the business.
LAR +6 @ DAL
Coming off a bad loss to PIT last week, I like the Rams in this spot. Stafford’s offense ranks 3rd-best in three-and-out rate, at 25%, behind PHI and KC. DAL’s rate is 10% higher—the same rate as CAR.
LAR rank 5th in score rate on total drives and 8th in successful play percentage. Through Week 6, they ranked 5th in successful play percentage—DAL ranks 18th, at 33%. Much of LAR success is Matthew Stafford.
Stafford ranks 2nd in PFF pass grade on throws 20+ yards, with the most completions amongst these throws. His big-time-throw rate is slightly below Tua’s, but he leads the league with 29 and just 6 turnover-worth-plays. He has just 1 TWP on throws of 20+ yards, which is incredible. When throwing this distance, Patrick Mahomes has 8 TWPs and Jalen Hurts has 6.
DAL has seen the least amount of targets 20+ yards downfield, but they have the second-worst open-target rate at this distance. Stafford should have open targets where he likes them, and Tutu Atwell leads LAR in targets of 20+ yards.
If we look at PFF’s matchup projection in the FanDuel app, I like the value of 25.5 receiving yards for Atwell, given what we know about his deep route running and his highly favored matchup against Jourdan Lewis.
NYJ @ NYG +3
Many will probably look at this spread and think the NYG are given too much credit, while NYJ aren’t given enough. A quick look will certainly paint that picture, but I like the NYG in this spot.
The rub on the NYG has been their offensive line, which is not good, but they did have their best game of the season last week, recording the 7th-best pass-blocking efficiency rating in Week 7 and allowing just 7 pressures. Their best offensive lineman, Andrew Thomas, was supposed to be coming back this week, but is now doubtful. The spread hasn’t changed, given this news, so maybe the sharps have confidence in Justin Pugh.
So if we believe the NYG offensive line has gotten better the last couple weeks, we can move onto their playmakers. Per PFF, the NYJ have played man-coverage at a top-10 rate this season. Wan’Dale Robinson has performed the best amongst NYG receivers against man-coverage, with 33% target rate on 21 routes run. He’s also been very efficient amongst NYG receivers this season.
Wan'Dale Robinson is averaging 4 yards of separation per target, ranking 3rd in the league, and he’s recorded 11 first downs on 28 targets, per PFF. If we look at PFF’s matchup projections in the FanDuel app again, Wan’Dale Robinson has the best chance against NYJ defenders, and he’s favored against Michael Carter II on 22 snaps.