WAS +3 @ NE
Montez Sweat and Chase Young probably moved this line, after opening at +2, but I don’t really care about the WAS defense in this game. Any poor-to-mediocre defense can play with NE. Mac Jones has 3 pick-sixes this season, and he wasn’t far from throwing another to Jalen Ramsey, last week. He leads the league in turnover-worthy plays, and he has one less INT than he does touchdown passes. NE ranks 9th-worst in pass-rushes allowed, so WAS could still develop pressure this weekend. With this, I’m focused on the other side of the ball—the side where Sam Howell has the ball.
Sam Howell had a pretty sweet game last week, in their loss to PHI. He scored 33 fantasy points, went 39-for-52 with 397 yards and 4 TDs. He was passing a lot and completing a lot, much of what we’ve seen from him all year, just without the sacks. Howell leads the league in total dropbacks and ranks 3rd in positive EPA pass plays that don’t involve sacks. He’s also been very accurate, ranking 3rd in accurate-plus throws (accurate, in frame, in front, away from coverage).
Sam Howell’s biggest issue has been avoiding sacks, but NE ranks 27th in total sacks this season, and they rank 30th in pass-rush win rate.
NYG +2 @ LV
The Raiders aren’t good, and they know that after firing Josh McDaniels and moving onto backup QB and 4th-round pick, Aidan O’Connell. O’Connell graded high in the preseason with an 89.5 pass grade and 3 TDs, but I still like the NYG in this spot.
LV has a lot going on within the organization that I don’t think will be pretty this first week with a new coach and quarterback. However, the NYG are looking to revamp their offensive line with Andrew Thomas’ return. The NYG have allowed the most sacks this season, but they’ve been looking a lot better the last few weeks. Mark Glowinski earned an 81.0 PFF grade against the Jets, last week—the highest grade by a NYG lineman this season—and Justin Pugh allowed only 2 pressures on 26 dropbacks. Andrew Thomas had the 4th-best pass-block grade amongst lineman last season.
With Andrew Thomas, we can also most certainly expect NYG to run the ball a lot against LV. The Raiders rank 31st in early down RB success allowed and 30th in EPA per rush allowed. Their average depth of tackle is 4.62 yards downfield, ranking 4th-worst, and their run defense has the 6th-most missed tackles. Saquon Barkley has had 28, 24, and 39 touches in the last three weeks. LV has the most missed tackles on run plays in the last three weeks. Since his return, Barkley leads the league in rushing yards after contact, at 334.
IND -2.5 @ CAR
IND is on a 3-game skid, but this spread feels awfully tight. Yes, Gardner Minshew has not been great, and in the last 3 weeks, IND leads the league in turnover rate on offensive drives, and they’ve had the 6th-most 3rd-and-long situations. But CAR’s defense is just bad. They’ve had 37 defensive 3rd-and-long situations, and they didn’t turn the ball over on downs once.
In CAR’s first win last week, they had 11% success rate rushing on early downs and 13% success rate rushing on all downs. If anything, we can expect them to pass more on early downs, where IND ranks 5th-worst in ADOT in coverage on early downs, at 8.9 yards. IND also ranks 5th-worst in open-target percentage on early down passes, but we’re asking a lot out of Bryce Young to lead this team to another victory. His total ADOT ranks 32nd amongst QBs, and with a 54.7 PFF pass grade, he hasn’t played much better than Gardner Minshew, who has a recorded 49.4 pass grade. I still expect Bryce Young to be successful in passing yards because IND will leave men open, but I don’t see him sealing the deal on a win.
I really just think IND has more offensive weapons. If they run the ball more, which they really, really should, they will reap the benefits of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. These two both recorded 0.18 and 0.24 EPA per play last week.