NFL Week 9: The Von Miller Effect
Two sides to the blockbuster trade that have found their way into my bet slip.
đ Cowboys -10 -105
đ Rams -7 -110
Week 8 (or Wonk Week credited to Bill Simmons) was nothing less than âwonky.â We had ten underdogs covering and eight winning outright. Yet, the underdog we all wanted to win was decapitated, and I officially donât feel anything for the Lions anymore (unless Dan Campbell cries again because Iâm a sucker). The favorite we all had the most confidence in broke our hearts against the goddamn Jets, and the moment we put any money on Carson Wentz, he makes us regret everything, leaving us feeling dirty and stupid.
I watched Sunday afternoon unfold from my phone, as I sat 6,000 feet above sea level looking down at the Denver Broncos and the Washington Football Team battling it out in Denver. Iâll likely never pass up an afternoon in the bleachers, but it wasnât the greatest of times as neither offense could get much going, and I was left thinking Von Miller was out on injury. The Broncos ended up winning by a fourth quarter touchdown, but this win wasnât enough for my eyes or the eyes of the Broncosâ General Manager for that matter.
Before the trade deadline on Tuesday, Denver announced they had traded their All-Pro pass rusher and Super Bowl V MVP to the LA Rams. In return, they received a second- and third-round draft pick. I give George Paton a lot of credit for this decision. At 4-4 on the year, thereâs a chance the Broncos make a push for the playoffs. But if weâre being realistic, this team isnât as good as their record shows, and their second half to the season doesnât look as promising. As much as Iâm sure it hurts fans to see a âhometown-heroâ part ways, Paton did Von Miller right and traded him to a team that stood a chance at a Super Bowl.
âHeâs done right by us for 11 years. We wanted to do right by Von, otherwise, we werenât going to trade him; we were going to keep himâPaton
Down a heavy piece to their defense, the Broncos face the Cowboys in Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys got it done in Minneapolis last week without Dak Prescott on a late fourth quarter drive and defensive stop. Initially, this one looked like it was going into overtime. The Cowboys were looking at 3rd and 16 from the Minnesota 20 with 1:04 on the clock, until Mike Zimmer illegally called two timeouts consecutively, penalizing them 5 yards. Yikes.
âI screwed up. I forgot that I called one. I knew the play that they were running. It was really the same play they hit down the middle against us for a long touchdown...ââZimmer
Now at 3rd and 11, a field goal was still looking likely to tie up the score. Yet, we canât forget how much of a threat Ezekiel Elliott is in the red zone. On a one yard dump pass to Zeke, he went to work and picked up the first down.
For realâthis play ended in a first down.
I also donât know how Amari Cooper caught this ball a few plays earlier on the same driveâŚ
It was Amari Cooper again for the touchdown and lead.
Kirk Cousins still had 50 seconds on the clock to make one final push, but without their timeouts, it was out of reach.
The Cowboys have covered every game this year at 7-0. This seems absurd, so I did some research. Per Pro Football Reference, the last team to go undefeated against the spread through seven weeks was the notorious â85 Bears. The Bears finished their season that year at 15-3-1 ATS, including their 46-10 win over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XX. The 1989 49ers and the 2016 Patriots have the best record overall at 16-3 ATS. The 2004 Chargers finished 13-2-2, and the 2015 Vikings finished 14-3 ATS. Itâs rare what the Cowboys are doing, and Iâm not leaving this hot table.
Dak is back this week, and his receivers have been cooking. Against the Vikings, CeeDee Lamb had 6 catches for 112 yards and Amari Cooper had 8 catches for 122 yards. On the year, Lamb has 4 touchdowns and Cooper has 5. Incredibly enough, Cooper also has zero drops on 54 targets. Along with Cooper, there are only two other receivers with over 45 targets and zero drops; Courtland Sutton and Tyler Boyd. This contributes to Dakâs leading completion percentage at 73.1%.
Dakâs pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown 43.7% of the time, but when heâs not moving chains, his backfield is. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are a fun duo to watch, and theyâll eat up yardage. Pollard ranks first in the league in yards per attempt at 5.8, and Zeke ranks 6th in yards after contact. Pollard finds his yardage in open space, and Zeke grinds it out near the sticks and end zone. I talked last week how their production allows Dak to thrive.
In summary, the Broncos are down a leader on defense, and they havenât had much spark from their offense. Dallas is hot as ever, and Dak is fresh at home.
On the other end of the Denver blockbuster trade, the Rams welcome Von Miller as they host the Titans on SNF. I look at this matchup similarly. Despite allowing the Texans to score 22 points in the fourth quarter and backdoor cover a 16.5 point spread last week, the Rams are hot. Matt Stafford looks really, really good, and his connection with Cooper Kupp is what we all want in a relationship.
The Titans just lost their quarterbackâI mean running back, Derrick Henry, to a season ending injury. For this team, thatâs everything. Unfortunately, it was probably inevitable as much as they were utilizing him.
I joked on Twitter how many weeks it would take to surpass Derrick Henryâs total rushing yards, but really his numbers are insane. He has 937 yards this year, and the next contender is Jonathan Taylor (before last night) at 649. Henry has 728 yards after contact, and again Taylor has 463. Henry has 10 touchdowns and James Connor has 8. Henry has 219 attempts, and Joe Mixon has 137. Only 20 times this year, the Titans didnât hand the ball off to Henry when he was on the field. One of those times was a designed pass from Henry in Wildcat for a touchdown against the Chiefs in the first quarter.
When teams know the level of a threat a running back is between the tackles, their defenses contract. The safeties come in to help, and there ends up being more bodies closer to the line of scrimmage on the snap. When Henry has this respect from the defense, a designed fake run and throw over the linebackers is genius. It doesnât happen much, though. Walter Paytonâs eight touchdown passes are the most by a non-quarterback in the Super Bowl era. In the last 10 years, there have been 10 running backs that have thrown a touchdown pass. This does not include Adrian Peterson.
As Derrick Henry decided to undergo foot surgery, the Titans apparently didnât want to give up on their running game and picked up 36 year old Adrian Peterson from free agency. I donât know much, but replacing Derrick Henry is certainly impossible. Picking up a free agent with a good name has all the signs of disappointment ahead. A trade for a wide receiver to shift their focus on the pass game would have probably been the best move.
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
Titansâ RB Derrick Henry suffered a potentially season-ending foot injury during Sundayâs 34-31 win over Indianapolis, sources reported ESPN. Henry is undergoing an MRI today to determine the full extent of the damage.Yet, here are the Titans without the core of their offense up against Matt Stafford and the Rams. Itâs easy talking about how good Dak Prescott is, and itâs even easier talking about Staffordâs greatness. Heâs second to Tom Brady in yards this year, along with touchdowns at 22. He ranks 3rd in first downs and 3rd in completions over 20 yards at 18. On early downs, the Rams rank first in drop-back EPA. On late downs, the Rams rank first in drop-back EPA with a 58.1% success rate. Stafford and Sean McVay are cooking. If they see any areas that slow them down, it won't be their offense. And with the Von Miller defensive addition, how could it be their defense?
Create your profile
Only paid subscribers can comment on this post
Check your email
For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.
Click the link we sent to , or click here to log in.