NFL Week 10: Good Dogs
Daniel Sorensen is the poster child for the Chiefs' defense, and the Titans' offense will punt ten times at home.
š Raiders +2.5 -105
š Saints +2.5 -105
I stunk last week. I donāt like picking large favorites, mostly because thereās not a lot of value in those picks, but also because itās not as fun as handicapping an underdog or a road team given a 2.5 point spread. Yet, last week I convinced myself into nearly every favorite of more than seven points, and they all ended up losing outright. The Bills lost 6-9 against the Jaguarsāa final score that has happened 31 times per nflscorigami.com and still makes me chuckleāthe Cowboys were emasculated by Teddy Bridgewater and Fangioās defense in Dallas, and the Tennessee defensive line beat the shit out of Matthew Stafford in their upset over the Rams.
Luckily, I was able to cash Chiefs -0.5 earlier in the week, which ended up swinging to -7 aggressively when Rodgers was ruled out. This didnāt seem to matter for Chiefs bettors, until Daniel Sorensen allowed a late fourth quarter touchdown pass to Allen Lazard. The Chiefs are now 2-7 against the spread.
Unfortunately, this is what Daniel Sorensen does. He gives up touchdowns regularly, and itās well known by frustrated 2021 Chiefs fans.Ā
Sorensen is a safety you could expect from the Chiefsā depressing defense. At second most in the league, heās given up 4 touchdowns and allowed 149 yards after catch. At the 6th highest percentage, heās allowed 79.3% receptions on targets. In the red zone, quarterbacks love him, and Derek Carr will light him up on Sunday night.
Despite not covering, the Chiefs have won their last two games. Granted, these wins came from the Giants as 10.5 point favorites and Joran Loveās opening start. Although Love looked as if it was his first start, Patrick Mahomes played worse on paper. He recorded -6.5 extra points added (EPA), and his completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) was 11.4% higher than his actual 55.6%. His late down passes also held a measly 36% success rate. It has really been difficult for Mahomes to make plays that heās been used to making, due to his offensive line and Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs are playing against more two-high shells than any other team this year. Opposing defenses know the danger Mahomes and Andy Reidsā offense is with explosive plays, so this year, theyāve adjusted. The Chiefs are now forced to either run the ball or settle for shorter passes between the hashes, and this has ultimately worked in the defensesā favors. Last year, the Chiefs ranked second in explosive plays, similarly to 2019 and 2018. This year, they rank 29th. Unfortunately, the Chiefs havenāt really made a decent adjustment. Per PFF, they rank 26th in EPA per run against these two-high shell defenses, and Travis Kelce has been getting beat up off the line of scrimmage, making it difficult for Mahomes to get the ball to him in time.Ā
Mahomes is targeting Kelce more than any other tight end in the league, but his 54 receptions on 78 targets ranks him 30th amongst tight ends. Kelce also has the most tight end touchdowns, but there have been 4 interceptions when heās targeted. Last week, he also had 2 drops on 8 targets. Itās appearing as though the physicality heās been up against has been frustrating him. Heās been able to draw four penalties this year, but thatās well below the penalties he probably deserves. With the Raidersā pass rush, I expect his targets to still be high, but the quality of the throws will likely be less than ideal.
The Raiders, on early downs, have the lowest blitz rate, yet they have the highest pressure rate. If they can pressure Mahomes without blitzing, theyāll be able to keep close coverage on Kelce or any check-down running backs in the area. Maxx Crosby has pass-rushed 100% of his snaps this year, and he leads the league in total pressures and hits on the passer. Behind Myles Garrett, he has the second highest win percentage against the blocker on these pass-rush snaps. Heās been an absolute beast all year, and I love watching this defensive line go to work. I have to mention Yannick Ngakoue as well, who has had three two-sack games in the last four weeks.
Now like Mahomes, Derek Carr didnāt have a great game last week either. He left points on the field in the red zone (including the last drive fumble), and he committed two interceptions. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 6.4 (compared to his season average 9.3), but with the addition of DeSean Jackson from the Rams, I expect Carr to get back to more big-time throws, especially against the Chiefsā secondary.
Coming off a loss to Atlanta, the Saints face the Titans in Tennessee on Sunday. The Titans have won five straight, and last week they limited one of the best offenses to 16 points. Their defensive line has been dangerous, generating high frequency pressures, and causing quarterbacks to make turnovers. Matt Stafford was sacked 5 times last week by Tennessee, and Jeffery Simmons (who leads the league in pressures since Week 6) sacked Stafford three times single handedly.
Stafford played his worst game this year against Tennessee, and it wasnāt even close. Before last week, Stafford averaged per game a depth of target of 8.88 yards, a triple-digit NFL passer rating, 2.75 touchdowns, and led the league with an average .403 EPA per play. Against the Titans, his aDOT was 5.8 yards, his passer rating was 71, he threw one touchdown and two interceptions, as well as a pick-six that resulted in a total -17.0 EPA. Holy shit, he looked like Carson Wentz a week prior.
Now, quarterbacks will have bad games. Theyāll have games where itās difficult to find a rhythm. The Tennessee defense beat the shit out of the Rams. Yet, Ryan Tannehill and the Derrick Henry-less Titansā offense didnāt look great, and this isnāt likely to change. The Titans still want to run the ball like they have Henry in the backfield, but Henry is the reason that offense worked in the first place. Last week, I talked about the threat Henry gave to defenses that caused them to contract and play āsafe.ā With the replacement being Adrian Peterson, this offense is going to struggle to add the level of threat they once had. Peterson had 10 carries last week (much less than Henryās 20-plus) averaging 2.1 yards per attempt with one touchdown. Against a defense like the Saints, itāll be very difficult for Tennessee to move the ball on the ground at all.
The Saints defense wants you to run the ball. They rank second in rush EPA and third in rush success rate, behind the Bucs and Colts. They also rank second in early down rush EPA and success rate, causing teams to find themselves in more third-and-longs than theyād like. On the offensive side, the Saints are banged up, but I donāt see this being a large issue against the Titans, as this will likely be a defensive battle all day. The Under is 44 points, and one I have added to the bet slip.
Trevor Siemianās start last week (in replacement to Jameis Winston) was really fine. He threw 249 yards, two touchdowns, and averaged a depth of target of 8.5 yards. Unfortunately, he met Matt Ryan on the wrong day. Ryan threw 343 yards, two touchdowns, recorded a total 18.0 EPA, and threw 14.8% above expected completion percentage. He was given the ball with 1:01 on the clock in the fourth quarter down one point. He hit Cordarrelle Patterson for 64 yards on the first play and wiped his hands clean.
The Saintsā have done well this year bouncing back from a loss like this and have yet to lose two straight. The public is heavy on the Titans after the prime-time win and wins over KC and Buffalo, so thereās value in the Saints, especially against a fragile Tennessee offense. If we can get Alvin Kamara on Sunday, itāll be a nice bonus.