NFL Week 11: And Still No Trends
Dan Quinn vs. the Chiefs, Justin Fields to sling the ball off a bye, and the Vikings to break the hearts of fans in another one-score game.
🏈 Cowboys +2.5 -105
🏈 Bears +5 -110
🏈 Packers -1.5 -110
We’re officially over the Week 10 hump, and last week played right in line with the way this season has been going. The Rams, who had appeared to push their chips to the center of the table with big trades in Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr., are falling apart. The Broncos, who shut out the Cowboys for three straight quarters, lost to an inferior quarterback and defense in Denver. The Lions, who desperately just want to remove the “zero” in their win column, suffered the infamous tie.
We had Cam Newton’s return, along with the Dolphins’ defense. And of course, when I go out of my way to call Daniel Sorensen a disgrace, he intercepts Derek Carr in the Chiefs’ third straight win.
You’ll now hear chatter about the Chiefs finally being back, after their performance against the Raiders in Las Vegas. To me, they’re not back from anything, but they never really left either. This year, teams have figured out how to reduce the Chiefs’ explosive plays. They’ve done this primarily by aligning in a two-high shell with two safeties deep, protecting the big throws. This has proven to work for defenses across the league, and the Chiefs went from ranking highest in explosive plays in years past, to ranking 29th this season. Although the Raiders primarily play Cover-3, it seemed likely they would transition to a two-high shell against a team that suffers from it. They didn’t.
Gus Bradley, probably too confident in his successful pass rush, stayed in Cover-3 all night—dropping seven, rushing four, and closing the middle of the field. The Chiefs more or less said, “Thank you.” Screens were open every play, and Patrick Mahomes picked on the deep safety, connecting on a few deep vertical routes.
Although the score ended in 41-14, this game was actually closer at times than it should have been. The Chiefs allowed the Raiders to stay within two scores through the third quarter, and the Raiders shot themselves in the foot on numerous occasions. The Raiders’ offense converted just 1 of 9 third downs, and in a momentum-changing opportunity, DeSean Jackson “fumbled” the ball on his only reception.
The Chiefs played well, like they always have against defenses that give them opportunities to make big plays. They host Dallas this week, and Dan Quinn is too smart to give the Chiefs anything remotely close to an opportunity.
Dan Quinn and the Cowboys are coming off a big win against the Falcons—the team he was fired from a year ago in his 0-5 start. His “revenge game” was perfect. The Cowboys scored 43 points on offense and limited the Falcons to a wimpy field goal (sorry Over bettors).
The Cowboys have 17 takeaways on defense, tied for fourth, and Trevon Diggs leads the league with 8 interceptions. Per Jon Machota from The Athletic, they’ve also held opponents to 35 of 109 third-down conversions—ranking third. In efficiency, they rank fourth in total EPA per play on defense and fourth in drop-back EPA. On early downs, they rank third. Their rookie, Micah Parsons, has been a big help in all of this, recording seven sacks on the year and a 24.8% win percentage—both ranking him third, behind Maxx Crosby and Miles Garrett.
Dallas is a better team on a neutral field, so the 2.5 points is free candy.
Chicago is coming off a bye and a loss against the officials and the Steelers in Pittsburgh a couple Mondays ago.
They’re also on a four-game losing streak, and they’re one of four teams to have been an underdog by at least six points five times this year. Chicago ranks last in several categories, including quarterback sacks and yards per play. Yet, maybe in the spirit of this year’s outcomes, I love this pick.
They face Baltimore, the leader of the AFC North, in Chicago on Sunday. Baltimore is coming off a head-scratching loss to Miami last Thursday. Miami played well on defense, or well enough to confuse the hell out of the Ravens. Miami showed Cover-0 blitz on 40 snaps, according to Josh Cohen from CBS, and they limited the Ravens to two third-down conversions and caused them to punt eight times. The Ravens didn’t see the red zone until midway into the fourth quarter.
Despite the loss to the Steelers, Justin Fields looked really, really good in key moments. He had a season high five big-time throws and averaged a depth of target of 16.5 yards. And goddammit, his throw on the move looked beautiful—more bootlegs, please.
The Bears’ offensive line is ranked 20th in pass-block grade, which has limited Justin Fields this season. The Ravens are ranked 29th in passing yards allowed per attempt, and Fields leads the league in aDOT at 10.7 yards, so bootlegs could definitely help Fields make plays outside the pocket. If anything, I trust him to keep the Bears within 5 points at home.
A divisional matchup I like this week is the rivalry between the Packers and Vikings in Minneapolis. The Packers are coming off a shutout win against the Seahawks, extending their ATS streak to nine and 9-1 on the year—the best in the league. The Vikings are also coming off a win, and one they got done on the road. With a 27-20 victory, this marks the Vikings’ eighth one-score finish, and their third win amongst them.
In the Vikings’ total one-score finishes this season, they have been to overtime three times, winning just once. In their other one-score losses, they missed a 37 yard field goal against the Cardinals in Week 2. Against the Browns in Week 4, Cousins failed to move the ball down the field with one minute remaining. Against the Dak-less Cowboys in Week 7, they gave up a 3rd and 11 screen, Zimmer wasted timeouts foolishly, and they couldn’t get out of bounds on their final drive with zero timeouts to give.
Despite these tough losses, they beat a sneaky Chargers’ team last week. And yet, I think that’s just what I needed to bet against them at home in a divisional rivalry. Really though, if I had to choose between Rodgers and Cousins on a final drive, I’m taking Rodgers every time.