NFL Week 7: Best Bet of the Worst
We're suffering from the bye week in exciting matchups, but don't underestimate Matty Ice in a shootout.
š Falcons -2
With Buffalo, Dallas, and the LA Chargers on bye weeks, weāre left with decisions I wish I didnāt have to make: do I take the 18 points on the Texans against the Cardinals? Or maybe the 12 points on the Bears against the Bucs? I still donāt know who the Cardinals really are and betting against them makes me nervous every week even with 18 points. I like the Bears to cover, but I canāt trust anything Matt Nagy does and Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack remain out. Alas, we have two bad teams coming off subpar games in London. The Falcons visit Miami, and for the first time this year, Iām backing Matt Ryan and I actually love it.
Iāve written about Matt Ryanās arm before and the lack of confidence I have in him making big plays (average depth of target ranks 28th at 6.9 yards), but his EPA per play is in the top ten, and in his last three games heās thrown 8 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and leads the league in drop-back EPA, ahead of Dak Prescott.
Heās been given a lot of help with check-down throws to a large Cordarrell Patterson, along with their new addition at tight end. Cordarrell Patterson lit up the Washington defense in Week 4 with 5 receptions, 82 yards, and 3 touchdowns. A week later against the Jets, he recorded 7 receptions, 60 yards, and 8.6 yards per reception. Heās a man amongst boys in the red zone, and has the leagueās second highest target rate per route at 34%.
The fourth overall pick in the draft, Kyle Pitts, is coming off his best game with 9 receptions, 119 yards, and one touchdown. Calvin Ridley is also back after missing their last game against the Jets. Matt Ryan will pick apart the Miami defense, nickel after dime, as Miami ranks 29th in combined EPA on defense.
With trade rumors lingering, Tua is playing his second game back after a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on a neutral fieldāyikes. In the first drive of the game, he looked good and marched 75 yards and passed for 76 yards (there was a false-start penalty) and a touchdown. Throughout the game, he moved the ball well, connecting to his tight end, Mike Gesicki, for 115 yards. But he also had some head-scratching throws and couldnāt finish the game given an 81% win-probability in the fourth quarter.
Iām not sure what he was seeing on 3rd and short, but he might want to trust his legs more than his arm (the play resulted in an overthrow incompletion).
Ultimately, I think this game will be a shootout. Atlanta ranks 30th in defensive DVOA, and Miami ranks 26th. Even though Miami has home advantage, I trust Matty Ice and the Falconsā offense to get it done in the end against the Dolphins, who have struggled to find any good this year, including their disappointing defense that ranked 4th in combined EPA last year. Miami has also only covered one of their five losses, and I canāt bet against those numbers.
Check out my post earlier this week for two more picks on my Week 7 slate.