NFL Week 8: Emotional Bias Pick
Sometimes two venti coffees and a couple espresso shots is enough to get a win.
š Lions +3.5
We knew going into last Sunday that our expectations should be low with Buffalo, Dallas, and the LA Chargers all on bye weeks. Yet, it ended up being much worse with only one game ending in a one-point scoreāthat game pushed at two points. As for the rest, we watched the broken Chiefs score three points on the Titans, and the Patriots put a 50-burger on the Jets. If you tuned into the Monday night game, you either went to bed early, questioned why you existed, or forgot you were watching the game entirely like myself because the Manning Cast never misses.
Yet, itās football, right? A bad day is still a good day, and within the ugly, we can always find some good. We had a Scorigami in the Texans at Cardinals game, as the Texans managed to score exactly 5 points in their loss. And we had the world behind Dan Campbell, as he emptied his clip on the Rams and proved to his now 0-7 team that he was going to give everything he had to give them a chance.
Weāve watched Dan Campbell over the weeks wear his heart on his sleeve. Heās continued to express his passion for Detroit, while suffering some tough and frustrating losses. In Week 3, his Lions had an 80% chance of winning the game, until Justin Tucker hit a record-breaking 66 yard field goal as time expired. Two weeks later, with 37 seconds on the clock, the Lions scored a touchdown and Dan Campbell put his nuts on the table and went for the two-point conversion to put his team up by one. Moments later, his courage was overshadowed by heartbreak, as the Vikings went against their own infamous script and made a field goal on the next drive to end the game.
In these losses, you root for Campbell because you feel his pain through his words. He speaks with honesty that transforms into motivation by being himselfāhe tells it as it is as he sees it, and you know that he cares a lot. And after his loss to the Rams last week, I think I would die for the guy.
āI just feel like this place fit me, man. It really did. Like I belonged. That I literally fit like a glove in Detroit. They love the Lions, they love football, and this place called out to me. It was like, āYou know what? You need to let these guys know what youāre about, that you understand their pain.āā
The Lions scored a touchdown in six plays on their opening drive to the Rams. If you werenāt watching closely, youād be surprised to see the Lions with the ball seconds later, as they converted a first quarter onside kick. Their next drive consisted of a fake punt conversion and a field goal, putting them up 10 points on the Rams before the Ramsā offense saw the field. The Rams went on to take a one-point lead going into halftime, but the Lions continued to swing hard in the second half and converted another fake punt in their first drive of the second half. It was as if Campbell became addicted to fake kicks, and McVay was getting irritated.
Campbell showed his team he wasnāt afraid of a little risk to give the Lions the best chance of winning a ball game. The Rams are a really good team with a great quarterback and great coach. The Lions werenāt going to win this game in the end (although, they did cover), but we did see an effort out of a less talented team that will have more weight in matchups other than a juggernaut like the Rams.
The Lions face the Eagles at home this week, and this is Campbellās best chance for breaking their losing streak. For the first time this year, the Eagles are favored. Yet, where the Eagles continue to struggle is getting an offense running that gives Jalen Hurtsā the best opportunities to make plays. Heās terribly inaccurate (ranking 26th in completion percentage and 29th in completion percentage over expectation), but they continue to look to pass far more often than they run. Aaron Glenn, the Lionsā defensive coordinator, is going to out-coach rookie head coach, Nick Sirianni. Glenn has made good offenses earn every point (including the Packers, Ravens, Vikings, and Rams), and against a team that struggles to move the ball, heāll be able to find what works early and hammer on it.
On the offensive side, the Lions have found ways to move the ball downfield by giving Jared Goff the best chances to make plays. This really means getting the ball to DāAndre Swift. Swift has the most receptions as a running back at 42 for 391 yards. The next guy up is Najee Harris with 34 receptions and 244 yards. Swift also leads the league in yards after the catch with 426 yards. Heās got great hands and runs well in open space. Last week, he ranked second behind JaāMarr Chase in yards after catch, and as a fantasy owner, you love to see it. Heās a great asset for Jared Goff, giving him a check-down to rely on.
Really though, my narrative for this game is that Dan Campbell and the Lions want this win more. Sometimes thatās all it takes, and I think weāll see yet again why Dan Campbell is a football guy. His players and coaches are behind him, and the public is behind him.
āHe makes it to where you come into work every day and thereās no fear; itās all love. And as a coach working for him, man, I donāt want to disappoint him. That would crush me. If I knew that I disappointed him ā¦ he wouldnāt have to yell. He wouldnāt have to say anything. Just knowing that I let him down would do it.āātight end coach, Ben Johnson
Letās start our Sunday as Campbell will with two Starbucksā ventis and two espresso shotsāgod help us.